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バングラデシュ経済

BANGLADESH ECONOMY 

Introduction: During  the   just  concluded  fiscal year  1997-98, Bangladesh experienced an economic  growth   rate  of  5.6%.  Despite  the   positive  contribution  of  relatively strong external  demand,   real  GDP  growth  decelerated  slightly  due  to   weakening of domestic demand,  which  is reflected in the decline in gross fixed capital creation and also in private consumption. Dependence  of   the domestic  demand  on foreign resources, as measured by current account deficit, increased while  the  national saving-investment gap narrowed as a result of a weakening of investment activity.   


Economic Growth: Growth was strong in industry, energy and construction sectors, but a sharp fall in the growth rate in agriculture from 6.4% in 1996-97 to 3.1% in 1997-98, kept the overall GDP growth rate lower than in 1996-97. 
Growth rates of different sectors in 1997-98 were as follows:

 

Sectors 

%

Agriculture  
Mining and Quarrying  
Industry 

Large and medium 
Small  
Construction  
Power, Gas, Water and Sanitation  
Transport, Storage & Communications  
Trade Services  
Housing Services  
Public Administration and Defense  
Banking and Insurance  
Professional and Miscellaneous  

3.1
25.2
8.1
10.1
4.2
6.2
5.8
6.7
6.2
3.9
10.3
3.8
7.0

GDP growth rate at constant (1984-85) market prices 

5.6

 

Per capita GDP in dollar terms stood at US $263 compared to US $264 in the previous year, reflecting the effect of exchange rate changes. 

Measured by the development in the CPI, inflation was 6.3% in 1997-98 compared to 3.9% in 1996-97. The increase in the prices as measured by GDP deflator was 3.9% in 1996-97.The wage rate index increased by 10.0% in 1996-97.The average devaluation of Bangladesh Taka reached 7.8% in 1997-98 compared to 4.4% in 1996-97. 

INDUSTRY 
The growth rate in the industrial sector increased to 8.1% in 1997-98 from 3.5% in 1996-97. Growth of large scale manufacturing output increased significantly by 10.1% in 1997-98 compared to only 3.4% in 1996-97.Much of the growth was concentrated in export oriented industries particularly readymade garments and hosiery. Production in domestic industries also increased, mainly because of strong domestic demand for construction-related materials. Production in various sectors of industry changed as follows: Garments (+33%).Cement (+ 32%),Sugar (+23%),Cotton textile (+9%) Fertilizer (+9%),Iron and steel (+8%),Jute textile (+7%),Natural gas (+7),Electricity (+5%),Edible oil (-2%),Leather products(-30%),News print (-75%). 

AGRICULTURE 
Agricultural production declined in 1997-98.,owing largely to decreased crop production (in particular rice).The growth rate of agriculture sector was 3.1% in 1997-98 compared to 6.4% in 1996-97. Even the volume growth in agriculture was somewhat offset by lower agricultural commodity prices. The target for foodgrains production during 1997-98 was 21.1 million tons: due to unfavorable weather conditions actual foodgrains production, according to the latest estimate, would be 20.5 million tons, as against actual production of 20.34 million tons in 1996-97,showing an increase of about 0.79%. 

INVESTMENT AND SAVINGS 
Gross investment as percent of GDP declined to 16.3% from 17.3% in the previous year. Both public and private investment shared in the decline. National savings as percentage of GDP remained unchanged but the domestic savings GDP ratio rose slightly i.e from 7.5% in 1996-97 to 7.9% in 1997-98.

MONETARY DEVELOPMENT
Total domestic credit rose by 12.6% to Tk.556.40 billion compared to 13.7% increase in 1996-97 to Tk.493.96 billion. In 1997-98,net credit to government increased by 15.7% to Tk. 92.72 billion, compared to a 27.1% increase 1996-97 to Tk. 80.17 billion. Credit to other public sectors increased by 6.4% to Tk. 62.50 billion, compared to 7.1% increase in 1996-97 to Tk. 58.74 billion. Credit to private sector increased by13.0% to Tk. 401.18 billion compared to 12.1% increase in 1996-97 to Tk.355.05 billion. Net domestic assets of the banking system increased by 11.0% compared to 13.2% increase in the previous year. while net foreign assets of the banking system increased by 3.8% in contrast to 2.8% decline in the previous year. Total liquidity grew by 10.1% to Tk. 557.24 billion in 1997-98,compared to 10.8% increase to Tk.506.28 billion in 1996-97. The bank rate was raised to 8.0% from 7.5% in 1996-97.The interest rate band remained between 8% in 1997-98. 

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 
The current account deficit increased by 13.1% to US $604 million (1.8% of GDP) in the preceding year. Trade deficit declined by 19.1% to US$2,219 million (6.7% GDP) from US$2,744 million (8.3% of GDP) in the previous year. 

EXPORTS 
Total export earnings for 1997-98 amounted to US$5,161 million (15.5% of GDP) compared to US$4,418 million (13.4% of GDP) in 1996-97.This indicates an increase of 16.8% compared to 13.8% in 1996-97.Garments had the major share (55.1%) followed by knitwear and hosiery (18.2%), frozen food (5.7%), jute goods (5.5%), leather (3.7%), raw jute (2.8%). Chemical products (1.4%) and tea (0.9%). 

IMPORTS 
Total import payments for 1997-98 amounted to US$ 7,380 million (22.2% of GDP) compared to US$7,162 million (21.8% of GDP) in 1996-97.This indicates an increase of 3.0% compared to 4.1% growth in 1996-97.Capital goods (29.2%), yarn (4.7%), petroleum products (4.0%), cotton (2.9%), edible oil (3.3%),cement (2.1%),crude petroleum (2.6%),wheat (2.1%),fertilizer (1.8%),oil seeds (1.1%) and rice (0.3%) had the major shares in imports. 

WAGE EARNERS REMITTANCES 
Remittances of Bangladesh nationals working abroad amounted to US$1,433 million as against US$1,475 million in the preceding year, indicating a decrease of 2.8%, compared to 21.2% growth in the previous year. Number of workers in overseas employment in 1997-98 decreased to 218.000 from 228.000 in 1996-97. A huge amount of 20% to 30% of official remittances was missing due to use of illegal 'Hindi ' channel. 

FOREIGN ASSISTANCE 
In 1997-98 foreign aid disbursement amounted to US$1350 million compared to US$1481 million in 1996-97.It indicates a decrease of 8.8% compared to 2.6% increase in the previous year. The disbursed aid amount included US$562 million as grants and US$788 million as loans. Total aid commitment for 1997-98 amounted to US$1900 million compared to US$ 1661 million in 1996-97. 

FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES 
Foreign exchange reserves increased to US $ 1,787 million in 1997-98 from US $1,719 million (equivalent to 2.4 months of imports) in 1996-97, indicating an increase of 4.0%. 

PRICE SITUATION 
Due to Unfavorable food production and increased production cost relative to productivity, the general price level registered a rising trend during 1997-98, with the inflation rate increasing by 2.4 percentage point to 6.3% from 3.9% in 1996-97, and from an average of 4.3% during the period 1990-97 

BUDGET FOR 1998-99 
The government budget for 1998-99 envisages revenue receipt of US $4,155 million and revenue expenditure of US $3,187 million. In 1997-98 revised budget, revenue receipts amounted to US $4,055 million as against the revenue expenditure of US $ 3,132 million. In 1998-99 budget gross revenue surplus is projected at US $ 968 million. After adjusting the capital and food accounts and non (ADP) project, the net contribution to the annual development program (ADP) from the revenue budget is expected to be US $ 1,251 million. The annual development program (ADP) for 1998-99 has been projected at US $2,720 million indicating a 3.2% increase over the revised development budget of US $2,635 million in 1997-98. Domestic resources are expected to finance more than 46% of development budget of 1998-99 compared to 45% during the previous year. The 1998-99 budget calls for an increase in development expenditure on projects in economic and social sectors with an emphasis on reactivating work in rural areas and poverty alleviation. For industry-led growth and distribution of the fiscal burden more equitably, efforts are being made to improve tax administration, reduce duties on raw materials and intermediate goods, lower the corporate tax rate from 40% to 35% withdraw duties and VAT from computer and its accessories and offers other investment incentives. 

 

MAJOR ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Indicators  94-95  95-96  96-97   97-98   98-99E 
NATIONAL ACCOUNTS: 

GDP [MILLION US$] 
GDP GROWTH (%) 
PER CAPITA GDP (US$) 
  

29111 
4.4 
243 
  

31871 
5.3 
261 
  

32858 
5.9 
264 
  

33281 
6.0 
265 
 

33900 
6.0 
265 
AGRICULTURE: 

SHARE TO GDP (%) 
GROWTH (%) 
  

32.8 
-1.0  
  

32.2 
3.7 
  

32.8 
6.4 
  

31.7 
3.1 
 

31.0 
3.0 
INDUSTRY: 

SHARE TO GDP (%) 
GROWTH (%) 
  

11.3 
8.6 
  

11.3 
5.3 
  

11.1 
3.5 
  

11.3 
8.1 
 

12.0 
8.0 
TRANSPORT, STORAGE & COMMUNICATION: 

SHARE TO GDP (%) 
GROWTH (%) 
  

  
12.1 
5.9 
  

  
12.1 
5.0 
  

  
12.2 
6.1 
  

  
12.3 
7.5 
 

 
12.4 
7.0 
POWER, GAS, WATER & SANITATION: 

SHARE TO GDP (%) 
GROWTH (%) 
  

1.8 
11.3 
  

2.0 
9.9 
  

1.9 
5.0 
  

1.9 
9.0 
 

2.0 
8.0 
MONEY & CREDIT 
(BILLION TK): 
TOTAL LIQUIDITY 
BROAD MONEY-M2 
FOREIGN ASSETS (NET) 
DOMESTIC ASSETS (NET) 
DOMESTIC CREDIT 
GOVT. SECTOR (NET) 
OTHER PUBLIC SECTOR 
PRIVATE SECTOR 
  

  
422.13 
104.64 
317.49 
360.86 
46.14 
49.07 
265.65 
  

  
456.91 
67.36 
389.55 
434.53 
63.10 
54.82 
316.60 
  

  
506.28 
65.45 
440.83 
493.96 
81.17 
58.74 
355.05 
  

  
557.24 
67.93 
489.31 
556.40 
92.72 
62.50 
401.18 
 

 
630.00 
75.00 
555.00 
625.00 
110.00 
65.00 
450.00 
FINANCIAL DEEPING 
M2/GDP (%) 
  
36.1 
  
35.1 
  
36.1 
  
36.2 
 
37.2 
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: 

EXPORT (MILLION US$) 
IMPORT (MILLION US$) 
TERMS OF TRADE 
1979-80=100 
WORKERS REMITTANCES 
(MILLION US$)
CURRENT ACCOUNT 
BALANCE (MILLION US$) 
OVERALL BALANCE 
(MILLION US$) 
FOREIGN EXCHANGE 
RESERVES (MILLION US$) 
  

3473 
5834 

100.1 
1198 

-1065 

305 

3070 
  

3882 
6881 

99.5 
1217 

-1630 

-1031 

2039 
  

4418 
7162 

98.1 
1475 

-534 

-320 

1719 
  

5161 
7380 

96.0 
1433 

-604 

-50 

1787 
 

5780 
7890 

95.0 
1570 

-500 

100 

1900 

 

Public Finance: 

Current Revenue 
(million US$) 

Tax Revenue 
(million US$) 

Current Expenditure 
(million US$) 

Annual Development Program 
(million US$) 

 Overall deficit (million US$) 
  

  
3535 
  

2764 


2562 

 
2563 

1980 
  

  
3798 
  

2995 
  

2893 


2452 

 1817 
  

  
4015 
 

3296 

 
2586 
  

2586 

1676  
  

  
4055 
 

3240 
 

3132 

 
2635 

1791 
 

 
4155 


3323 


3187 

2720 

1864 

Saving & investment as % of GDP 

Total investment 
Public investment 
Private Investment 
National Savings 
Domestic Saving 
Rate in Inflation (CPI) 

GDP deflator (%) Change 

Wage price index (%) Change 

Average Exchange 
Rate (Taka/US$) 
  

  
16.6 
7.2 
9.4 
16.0 
8.2 
5.2 

9.1 

4.5 


40.20 
  

  
16.9 
6.2 
10.7 
14.2 
7.5 
4.1 

5.7 

6.4 


40.84 
  

  
17.3 
6.5 
10.8 
14.8 
7.5 
3.9 

2.0 

4.7 
 

42.70 
  

  
16.3 
6.1 
10.2 
14.8 
7.9 
6.3 

3.9 

10.0 
  

46.30 
 

 
17.0 
6.2 
10.8 
15.3 
8.0 
6.0 

4.0 

10.0 

                               50.00 
P= Provisional, E=Estimated 

 

EXPORTS (VOLUME AND VALUE) 

Items 

1995-96 

1996-97 

  Volume of Exports (million)  Value of Exports (millionUS$)  Volume of Exports (million)  Value of Exports (million US$) 
Ready-made Garments

Knitwear & Hosiery

Jute Goods

Frozen Foods

Leather

Raw Jute

Chemical Fertilizer

Tea

Engineering

Handicraft

Miscellaneous

53.45 doz

27.54 doz

0.52 ton

76.06 lbs

128.61 sft

1.75 bale

0.66 ton

24.76 kg

-

-

-

2237.95

763.30

317.86

320.73

195.48

116.32

104.13

38.14

16.12

5.66

302.59 

65.59 doz

32.60 doz

0.44 ton

60.85 lbs

127.69 sft

1.81 bale

0.39 ton

26.67 kg

-

-

-

2843.33

940.31

281.42

293.84

190.26

107.77

58.69

47.47

19.64

5.99

372.48

Total   4418.28   5161.20

 

MAJOR TRADING PARTNERS (MILLION US$)

 

   Item  1996-97  1997-98 
  Exports 

 
IMPORTS  EXPORTS  IMPORTS (P) 
USA 

UK 

GERMANY 

ITALY 

FRANCE 

BELGIUM 

NETHERLANDS 

JAPAN 

INDIA 

PAKISTAN 

SINGAPORE 

CHINA 
1431.80 

438.21 

428.11 

203.57 

312.27 

210.45 

208.72 

114.05 

46.49 

39.04 

30.00 

55.31 
302.21 

178.96 

164.40 

55.19 

130.30 

22.26 

117.66 

592.00 

922.19 

67.27 

296.61 

575.21 
1929.47 

440.19 

510.79 

270.24 

368.54 

210.90 

235.83 

112.31 

65.58 

44.77 

26.07 

48.63 
275.35 

233.81 

257.23 

72.94 

121.10 

21.68 

107.38 

515.65 

726.34 

90.87 

272.89 

736.28 
P= PROVISIONAL         

 

NEW INVESTMENTS  (In Million US$)

 

  1995-96  1996-97  1997-98 
A. INVESTMENT PROJECTS
     REGISTERED BY BOARD OF 
     INVESTMENT 

B. INVESTMENTS MADE BY 
     BSCIC 

C. INVESTMENTS IN EPZs 
2675.00 

 

88.40 


30.58 
2121.67 

 

58.86 


53.88 
4399.23 

 

54.55 


 48.00 
TOTAL (A+B+C)  1712.43  2234.41  4501.78  


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